Man, some great outings this week. High scorers, photo finishes, two MNF games, what else can you ask for? Welllll how about some analysis?? Back to back weeks, whoopie!!

Clawing Into the Top 5

"I may lose, but I only need [some number] points to get a Top 5!"

We've all been there. Your male pattern points-baldness flares up at the worst time, and you're left scrambling to salvage a big chance. Hi, my name is Jake with Top Five Solutions. Here at TFS, we make it our mission to let you know what to expect when you're expecting... to lose.

When it comes to scores, bigger is always better, but sometimes all you need to get the job done is the average. But what is average?

Historically, if you hit 120 you've got a coin flip chance of making it, and at 130 you can feel pretty good. At 140, only twice has someone not gotten one. Fall below 120, however, and your odds drastically decrease. This makes sense, given our league average hovers around 118. Below 100 and its extremely improbable, only once ever (and only half-points then).

• 2021 Week 5 (sad that was such a lackluster recap that week) where Tmo put up 140.76 against Ryan, but had the 6th highest score of the week, was the highest anyone has ever scored without getting a Top 5
• Just recently, 2024 Week 13, Ryan would be the one to put up 140.06 but fail to earn a Top 5 point
• Finally, in 2018 Week 15 Mike and Patrick would tie their game at 97 each, which was also a tie for the 5th score so they'd split the Top 5 point with 0.5 each. Tragically I don't have an archive of newsletters going that far back, but the box score is pretty funny to look at

Alright, enough fun and games, onto the recaps!

Recaps

Ryan 139.58 - 163.0 Jake

Feels wild that this is the first game in the list today. Jake's band of misfit toys finally put it together, going off for 163 points in a whole team (not the Packers defense, fuck yall) effort. 30+ from Josh Jacobs and George Pickens on MNF, with a little seasoning of 20+ out of Jalen Hurts and Travis Etienne will do just fine, thank you. Ryan, as expected scoring over 130 points, still got his Top 5 point to make it an acceptable week, sometimes you have to just tip your cap. Amon-Ra has been lighting it up and Trey McBride is a shining light of reliability in a dark and dreary TE landscape, but the real breakout has been Rome Odunze, currently at WR3 on the season. Comfortably back at 4-4, Jake will turn to face Nathan, who also turned in a much-needed big week this week to climb back into the mix. Ryan will get a chance to right the ship against a struggling John Luke team.

Nathan 161.0 - 133.86 TK

TK, ever the recipient of misfortune, was the subject of my analysis this week. 133 points and no Top 5. Its not impossible at that range, but 84% of the time you'll get it and that's usually pretty good. The Josh Allen James Cook combo has been deadly all year, and Justin Jefferson put up 22.6 on the weekend, I mean he scored 134 like no one is to blame. Nathan just popped off, and the league was strong enough this week that 134 wasn't going to cut it. Also, Nathan, I distinctly recall some criticsm out of a certain fiance about "drafting the rook" aka 34-point STUD Ashton Jeanty. Hey Allie, apologize to our boy. The big win comes at a huge time for Nathan, from the dregs of the league last week to rocket right back into contention before it got out of hand. TK, man poor TK this man has the 3rd most points in the league yet is somehow 1-3 in both Top 5s and H2H.

Garrett 128.86 - 159.08 Austin

Okay, I know that I have a history of ripping Austin in jest, but fellas I cannot be the only one that's fed up with him this year. He's averaging 147 per game, even when the universe tries to nerf him by taking out Lamar's hammy and exploding Tyreek's kneecap he almost lands the top score of the week (though not this week, all me baby). Puka Nacua is WR1 on the season, Bijan RB4, 14th round pick Tucker Kraft has put up almost as many points as 1st overall pick JaMarr Chase, its just wrong. Garrett, while not scoring quite as much as TK, still got a little unlucky by putting up 128 without landing the Top 5, 128 will typically get the job done. Again, there's really no one to blame here, just an unfortunate draw on the week for Garrett and he'll need to regroup, find his center, and go face his fellow merchant of misfortune, TK.

Collin 145.34 - 119.78 John Luke

Man this has just not been JL's year so far. The first quarter of the season has been forgettable, yall look at his roster. Arguably the best RB-duo in the league with Gibbs and JT, Caleb Williams, despite a down week this week, has been lighting it up as a Joe Burrow replacement, even Courtland Sutton is WR12 right now. All that, and JL is 2-6 and in last place. It just has to turn around at some point, the math does not check out. An quick 0-2 this week against Collin, who while not getting the production he likely wanted out of JaMarr Chase, is loving what he's seeing from Bo Nix (30.74), CMC (26.1), and Emeka Egbuka (20.1). Collin turns his sights to Mike in a big early-season matchup. Collin has won 9 games in a row vs Mike, nine. You have to go back to 2020 Week 5 to find the last time Mike managed to beat Collin. JL also has a win streak on the line this week, he's won 5 in a row vs Ryan with an all-time record of 15-7.

Tyler 95.82 - 99.72 Mike

The lowest-scoring game of the week was also the most exciting. Tmo needed just under 12 ponts from Jaylen Waddle to complete a Monday night comeback against Mike, who struggled this week failing to break 100 for the first time this season. Bucky Irving and DK Metcalf did their part, eaching breaking 20, but the rest of Tmo's lineup really let him down. 6 single-digit scores including 1.2 from David Montgomery, despite the Lions winning that game 34-10. The bulk of Mike's production, and who he should be thanking the most, came from Drake Maye, who put up 27.22 in the absolute dismantling of the Panthers. Mike did lose Malik Nabers, so I hesitate to give him too much crap, he almost certainly would have broken 100 without that, but the loss weighs heavily as he has to regroup and face Collin. Tmo, meanwhile, turns to Austin. For all Tmo's success, he has had his struggles with Austin, going 8-12 in regular season matchups against him, plus a 2018 Championship loss.

Power Couples

Standings are very tight boys. Anyone's game still. Shoutout to me and Tmo notching a 3-0 record against Nathan and Ryan so far, pure dominance there. For context, a perfect record would be 8-0. Not all groups will play 8 games, but they'll hover around that mark by season's end.