Boys, this shit is impossible. I tried running all 1600+ scenarios on excel to spit out the probability for each spot, but there were just too many ties to make it work. I don't think that's feasible, so instead what I'm going to do is break it down by person and what needs to happen for you to make it. Also, no recaps this week because this shit took me forever. Here goes nothing: MIDWEEK UPDATE yall know I spoil you, here's the link to the Scenario Builder to see how the standings shape out based on outcomes:

SCENARIO MAKER

Collin

Collin is in, no doubt. He's up 3 points on the 5th-ranked team (Jake/Garrett) so he's locked in, and he cannot finish lower than the 2 seed. He can thank fuckin Josh Allen and his lunacy on SNF for that. But Collin has to go 2-0 to guarentee himself the #1 seed, he split the series with Nathan and, as of now, Nathan has an edge on him in points scored, so a tie would go to Nathan for the top block. Thus ends the simple outcomes. According to my calcs, Collin take #1 in 45% of possible outcomes, and #2 in 55%.

Nathan

Nathan is up 2 on the 5th place team, so a win OR a top 5 and he's in for sure. Control his own destiny type shit. Now if he goes 0-2 it gets weird. If he winds up in a one-on-one tie with Jake, TK, OR Garrett, he'll still have made the playoffs so it'll just be a matter of seeding, but he could potentially be facing a tie with Garrett AND Jake AND/OR TK. If there's a 3+ way tie it gets funky. Two seeds from a four-way tie at 18 points would belong to Jake (5-1 in group play) and whoever has more points between Nathan and TK (both 2-3 in group play, above Garrett at 2-4). Two seeds from a Jake/Garrett/Nathan three-way (hot) would belong to Jake AND whoever finishes with more points between Nathan and Garrett. A TK/Garrett/Nathan three-way (hotter) would go to Nathan and Garrett, regardless of points. So basically, the only way Nathan can miss is if he goes 0-2, Jake and Garrett BOTH go 2-0, and Garrett outscores Nathan by about 41 points this week to have more total points on the season.

TK

TK is in a good position, controls his own destiny too. All he has to do is go at least 1-1 and he's in. That means Jake would go 0-2, and even if Garrett went 2-0 it would be a clean final four teams. But TK doesn't own a H2H tiebreaker with Garrett OR Tmo, and both those teams outpace him substantially in points, so 0-2 would be dangerous. 0-2 would automatically give Jake the edge over TK in a one-on-one tie (if Jake only went 1-1), but if Garrett joins the mix then a three-way tie between Garrett/TK/Jake belongs to Jake and TK. If Tmo ALSO joins the mix, so a four-way tie with 17 points, would belong to Jake and Tmo. Really, if TK goes 0-2 he just really needs to hope Garrett and Tmo don't do too much.

Jake

Buckle up, it only gets crazier from here. Jake plays TK this week, So here's Jake's options: Jake goes 2-0, he's in. Period. That would mean at worse, he'd face a tiebreaker at 18 points with TK and Garrett, which Jake and TK own. If Jake BEATS TK but does NOT get a Top5, AND both Garrett and Tmo go 2-0, whoever has more points between Tmo and Jake goes (Tmo has about 25 ponts on Jake right now). A tie with Garrett and Tmo would go to Jake on account of him being 2-0 vs garrett this season. If Jake LOSES to TK and DOES get a top 5, either a 2-0 Garrett or a 2-0 Tmo with enough points would knock Jake out. Jake going 0-2 would pretty much be a death sentence.

Garrett

Garrett cannot simply lock down a spot if he goes 2-0, unfortunatley. If he goes 2-0, but TK goes 2-0 and Jake goes 1-1, Garrett would still be out. Garrett has a lot of points, so reaching that level of tiebreaker would be beneficial to him, but Garrett's problem is the H2H with Jake, he's 0-2. That is a big hit on group play records too when Jake is involved in the tie scenarios. He is 1-0 against Tmo though, which is helpful. So if Garrett goes 1-1 (Top 5 or h2h win, doesn't matter) AND TK goes 0-2 AND Jake goes 2-0, he's in. If Garrett goes 1-1 and TK beats Jake, he'll need Jake to go 0-2 or he'd lose that tiebreaker and be boxed out. If Garrett goes 0-2, he is eliminated from the playoffs.

Tyler

It gets rockier for Tyler. Now of course 2-0 with Jake and Garrett both going 0-2 gives him a clean 4th place, but there's like a billion tiebreak scenarios here. 2-0 lands him a playoff spot IF TK goes 0-2 AND both Jake and Garrett go 1-1 or worse. If he goes 2-0 and winds up in a one-on-one tie for the 4th spot, he'd lose to Garrett but potentially beat Jake based on total points. Going even 1-1 spells elimination for Tmo, because in a three-way tie between Tyler, Jake, and Garrett, Jake owns the group play record at 3-1 (Garrett and Tmo both at 1-2) and Garrett will certainly own the points total. Basically Tmo, 2-0 is what you need, plus some help.

Mike

Mike buddy, I'm sorry but the dream is over. Even a 2-0 week would put you, at best, in a tie with Garrett and the loser of Jake/TK (and possible Tmo), and in any of those scenarios Jake or TK would take it. Chin up, you fought hard, but it's time to hang it up.

GAMES TO WATCH

King of the Hill

That's it! With a week to spare, Nathan has officially won the 2024 season challenge of King of the Hill, good effort from Tmo to hold on, but that's the ball game!

Are You Better than the Georgia Bulldogs?

With the Dawgs retiring as the SEC Champs (go mf Dawgs baby) so too does the AYBTTGB challenge. Congrats Austin for winning the challenge (though there's no prize but bragging rights), I'm giving you the tiebreaker over Collin as a consolation prize for your garbage season. Well done all and go dawgs.